Agent-based Model for Radicalization

By: Badi Hasisi, David Weisburd & Michael Wolfowicz

Project PROTON's WP5 includes the development of Agent-Based Models to simulate the effect of a range of risk factors and processes on radicalization outcomes.  The model will be based on an agent activities space modelled after a modern European borough.  Agents will be programmed with routine activities and a broad range of individual characteristics.  Risk factors and effect sizes are derived from the meta-analysis conducted in T2.1, with a focus on opinion based risk factors.  Agents' risk scores will be affected by interactions with each other through the opinion transfer dynamic.  In order to simulate real-world opinion transfer dynamics, agents will also be able to communicate with one another through distance opinion transfer in order to simulate the effects of internet based communications.  Individual effect sizes will regulate the strength of the in-person versus online opinion transfer dynamics.  A select number of experiments will be carried out to test possible policy options for counter-radicalization, namely in the areas of socio-economic and socio-psychological.  The effect of the experiments of radicalization outcomes will be analyzed. The results of the simulations will lead to the development of the PROTON-S wizard